Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India

Gourishankar Hiremath and Jyoti Kumari

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency.

Keywords: Adaptive market hypothesis; Market efficiency; Random walk; Autocorrelation; Nonlinearity; Predictability; Financial crisis; Evolving efficiency; Emerging markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 G01 G02 G12 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

Published in SpringPlus 3.428(2014): pp. 1-14

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