Drought management plans and water availability in agriculture:A risk assessment model for a Southern European basin

Carlos Dionisio Pérez Blanco and Carlos Gomez

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The Drought Management Plans (DMPs) are regulatory instruments that establish priorities among the different water uses and define more stringent constraints to access to publicly provided water during droughts, especially for non-priority uses such as agriculture. These plans have recently become widespread across EU southern basins. However, in some of these basins the plans were approved without an assessment of the potential impacts that they may have on the economic activities exposed to water restrictions. This paper develops a stochastic methodology to estimate the expected water availability in agriculture that results from the decision rules of the recently approved DMPs. The methodology is applied to the particular case of the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain. Results show that if DMPs are successfully enforced, available water will satisfy in average 62.2% of current demand, and this figure may drop to 50.2% by the end of the century as a result of climate change. This is much below the minimum threshold of 90% that has been guaranteed to irrigators so far.

Keywords: Agricultural economics; water economics; risk management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D62 D81 Q2 Q25 Q54 R5 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014, Revised 2013-05-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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Published in Weather and Climate Extremes 4.4(2014): pp. 11-18

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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/60590/1/MPRA_paper_60590.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Drought Management Plans and Water Availability in Agriculture. A Risk Assessment Model for a Southern European Basin (2014)
Working Paper: Drought Management Plans and Water Availability in Agriculture. A Risk Assessment Model for a Southern European Basin (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:60590

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