公平与效率对养老改革的双重约束——延迟退休？还是并轨？

Fairness and Efficiency were the Double Constraints of Pension Reform——Delay Retirement ? or Incorporation ?

Tieding Zou and Hang Ye (hangye@zju.edu.cn)

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: 本文运用养老金亏空规模度量模型对比分析了延迟退休和并轨的公平性及效率性，并运用中国在1997-2012年间的数据对两种养老改革的公平性及效率性进行了模拟分析。研究发现，延迟退休并不能从根源上解决养老金亏空问题，而只是将养老金支付危机的爆发时机往后推迟了一段时间。同时，延迟退休既会降低现存工作代在退休后的养老待遇，又会加重延迟退休到期以后若干新生代的养老负担，从而不利于改善养老福利在代际间的分配公平性。此外，延迟退休还会吞噬掉大量工作机会，不利于降低新增劳动力的就业风险和宏观经济的不确定性。与延迟退休相比，并轨体制内外的养老保险体系，不但能在较短的时间内解决养老金亏空问题，还能缩小体制内外的养老差异，从而有利于改善养老福利在代内及代际间的分配公平性。此外，用并轨替代延迟退休，可减少延退者对工作机会的侵占，有利于缓解劳动力市场供过于求的结构性矛盾，从而有利于促进劳动力资源的优化配置和提高宏观经济的运行效率。所以，当前养老改革的方向应当优先考虑并轨，然后才是延迟退休。

Keywords: 养老保险; 延迟退休; 并轨 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-12-10, Revised 2014-01-05
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