Future Contribution of Export and Import to GDP in Bangladesh: A Box-Jenkins Approach

Md. Tareq Ferdous Khan and Nobinkhor Kundu ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The paper provides evidence of inconceivable growth of the macro-economic indicators Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Export of Goods and Services (EXPORT) and Import of Goods and Services (IMPORT) over the past three decades. The percentage of GDP occupied by each of the EXPORT and IMPORT indicator is in significant level in recent time though their contribution were little in 1981. The time series analysis by Box-Jenkins approach based on data from 1981 to 2010 indicates that the growth of the indicators will continue in the future. The forecasted GDP demonstrate the huge expansion of the different sectors within the country by 2015. The future contribution of EXPORT in GDP demanded that EXPORT will be the significant contributor in the country’s economy. On the contrary, a significant percentage of GDP will continue to be used for import of goods and services in future.

Keywords: ARIMA Model; Growth; Trade Deficit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F17 O42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-03-10, Revised 2012-06-15
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Published in The Journal of Comilla University 1.1(2012): pp. 1-8

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