The Pessimism Factor: SEC EDGAR Form 10-K Textual Analysis and Stock Returns

Andreas Chouliaras

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: I perform textual analysis on 20,000 annual SEC 10-K Forms, for NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX stocks, from 1992 until 2015. The textual analysis negative (pessimism) percentage per se, as used in the previous literature, is not a significant determinant of future stock returns. But, monthly portfolios based on the product of annual pessimism change and the previous period returns generate returns in excess of previous winners/losers. Nine months after the filing, the difference is higher than 5%, while it surpasses 7% twelve months after the filing. Negative (positive) previous returns along with positive pessimism changes lead to positive (negative) returns.

Keywords: SEC Form 10-K; Textual Analysis; Financial Sentiment; NYSE; NASDAQ; AMEX (NYSE MKT) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G10 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-07-13
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/66951/1/MPRA_paper_66951.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

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