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Evidence on Common Feature and Business Cycle Synchronization in Mercosur

Carlos Enrique Carrasco-Gutierrez and Fábio Gomes
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutierrez ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The aim of this work is to analyze the business cycles of Mercosur member countries in order to investigate their degree of synchronization. The econometric model uses the Beveridge-Nelson-Stock-Watson multivariate trend-cycle decomposition, taking into account the presence of common features such as common trend and common cycle. Once the business cycles are estimated, their degree of synchronization is analyzed by means of linear correlation in time domain and coherence and phase in frequency domain. Despite the evidence of common features, the results suggest that the business cycles are not synchronized. This may generate an enormous difficulty to intensify Mercosur agreements.

Keywords: Mercosur; Business Cycles; Trend-Cycle Decomposition; Common Features; Spectral Analysis. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 F02 F23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007, Revised 2009
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Published in Brazilian Review of Econometrics 1.29(2009): pp. 37-58

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Related works:
Journal Article: Evidence on Common Features and Business Cycle Synchronization in Mercosur (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: Evidence on Common Features and Business Cycle Synchronization in Mercosur (2009) Downloads
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