An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey
Ferda Halicioglu
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
Abstract:
This study attempts to examine empirically aggregate tourism outflows in the case of Turkey using the time series data for the period 1970-2005. As far as this article is concerned, there exists no previous empirical work dealing with the tourist outflows from Turkey. The previous tourism studies in the case of Turkey, by and large, focus on the inbound tourism demand analyses. As a developing country and an important tourism destination, Turkey has also been a significant source for generating a substantial number of tourists in recent years. Therefore, the tourist outflows from Turkey deserve to be analysed empirically too. The total tourist outflows from Turkey are related to real income and relative prices. The bounds testing to cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is employed to compute the short and long-run elasticities of income and relative prices. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables of outbound tourist flows, income and relative prices to determine the direction of causality. In the long-run, causality runs interactively through the error correction term from income and relative prices to outbound tourist flows. However, in the short-run, causality runs only from income to outbound tourism flows. The aggregate tourism outflows equation is also checked for the parameter stability via the tests of cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of the squares (CUSUMSQ). The empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining the total tourist outflows from Turkey and there exists a stable outbound tourism demand function. The results also provide important policy recommendations.
Keywords: outbound tourism demand; cointegration; Granger causality; stability tests; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 E0 O5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008, Revised 2008
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-mac and nep-tur
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)
Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6765/2/MPRA_paper_6765.pdf original version (application/pdf)
Related works:
Journal Article: An Econometric Analysis of the Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey (2010) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:6765
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().