Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico

Fiscal sustainability and currency crises: An empirical analysis

Alexis Cruz-Rodriguez

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The aim of this article is to assess whether a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) can be used as an early warning indicator for predicting the probability that a currency crisis occurs. Using the FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) and two different definitions of currency crisis, a probit model is estimated. The results suggest that the lagged FSI has an explanatory power over currency crises in a selection of countries.

Keywords: Currency crises; foreign exchange; fiscal sustainability; probit model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E62 F31 F33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-05-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Published in Análisis Económico 73.30(2015): pp. 31-49

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:67741

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