Forecasting football match results: Are the many smarter than the few?

Jaume Garcia Villar, Levi Pérez and Plácido Rodríguez

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: An empirical analysis of Spanish football betting odds is carried out here to test whether football matches final result estimates by experts (bookmakers) differ (better/worse) from those by the ‘crowd’ (football pools bettors). Examination of implied probabilities for each of the possible outcomes evidences the existence of favourite long-shot bias in the betting market for Spanish football. A further study of the accuracy of probability forecasts concludes that experts seem to be better in forecasting football results than the ‘crowd’.

Keywords: betting odds; forecasting; wisdom-of-crowds hypothesis; favourite long-shot bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-spo
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Related works:
Chapter: Forecasting football match results: are the many smarter than the few?* (2017)
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