经济增长与政府债务的非线性研究及其政策治理

Nonlinear Analysis of Economic Growth and Public Debt and Policy Governance

Yifei Cai

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper empirically analyze the nonlinear relation between real output per capital and public debt by employing threshold cointegration method based on ARDL model. Empirical results show that there exists a threshold cointegration relationship between government debt and real output per capital. In case of the empirical results, cutting government debt could boost economic growth in the long term. However, the short term variation of government debt makes little impact on real output per capital. Comparatively speaking, human capital and investment rate and trade openness make larger influence on real output per capital. From the perspective of economic policy, the government should take full advantage of the fiscal policy to cut the government debt with the operation space of monetary policy being compressed.

Keywords: ARDL threshold cointegration method; Economic growth; Public debt; Policy Governance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E62 H63 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-03-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cse and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72783/1/MPRA_paper_72783.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:72783

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().