Credit risk modelling: default probabilities for Portuguese municipalities

Karel Janda and David Moreira

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper investigates whether the economic adjustment program and post-program surveillance contributed positively to the structural recover of the Portuguese economy. This examination was conducted observing evidences related to several objectives included in the programs and on a sample of data collected from local defaulted and non-defaulted municipalities. Our results confirm that the financial aid provided by EC, ECB, and IMF had a small impact on the internal economic adjustment. There is a residual positive impact from the implemented reforms to promote growth, jobs, public debt, deficit, and stability of the country’s financial sector. The evidence is revealed by the measurement of the key program achievements and by the indicators related to the current high default probabilities of a large number of local municipalities.

Keywords: public finance; municipalities; default; international aid (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E6 G28 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-10-13
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74561/1/MPRA_paper_74561.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:74561

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().