Predicción de la Actividad Económica a Partir de Indicadores de las Encuestas de Opinión Empresarial: Evidencia para República Dominicana

Forecasting Economic Activity using Manufacturing Opinion Surveys: Evidence for the Dominican Republic

Miguel Jiménez Polanco and Merlym Ramírez Escoboza

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Manufacturing Surveys conducted by central banks, serve as a support to monetary policy decisions. This research analyzes the predictive power of indicators from EOE manufacturing survey of the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic to predict the economic cycle and to the development of macroeconomic forecasts. Additionally, we made an analysis of the indicators built from the qualitative responses of the survey and how they are related to official data. This analysis is performed by extracting the cyclical component using the Bry-Boschan (1971) approach used by the NBER for the analysis of business cycles. By doing this, the turning points of the series are identified. We estimate bivariate Vector Autoregressive to test for Granger causality in order to see if there is predictive causality in the indicators from EOE. Finally, we develop some forecasting exercises that show evidence of substantial improvements in short-term forecasts of the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE), when indicators from the manufacturing survey are included. We conclude that the indicators obtained from the surveys have predictive information that can be used to model economic activity and that can serve as a support for the monetary policy decisions.

Keywords: Surveys; Diffusion Index; Cyclical Component. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-12-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
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