Heterogeneidad y Racionalidad en las Expectativas de Inflación: Evidencia desagregada para República Dominicana

Heterogeneity and Rationality of Inflation Expectations: Disaggregated Evidence for the Dominican Republic

Miguel Jiménez Polanco and Nabil Lopez Hawa

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Inflation expectations play a key role for a central bank under an inflation targeting regime. This paper analyses the inflation expectations of economic agents answering the Survey of Macroeconomic Expectations run by the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD). Data is dis-aggregated by groups: academics, bankers, consultants, international organizations and firms. The main findings show: a) a learning process seen by a reduction of forecasting errors when predicting future inflation; b) heterogeneity of inflation expectations among different groups; and by last, c) data fails rationality tests related to rational and adaptive expectations; results suggest partial use of public information and a significant bias by agents.

Keywords: Inflation Targeting; Rational Expectations; Adaptive Expectations; Surveys; Inflation Expectations. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C82 D84 E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-01-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:75912

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