Incumbents, Challengers and Electoral Risk

Vani Borooah

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Borooah develops a methodology, based on Bayes’ theorem, for evaluating the electoral risk associated with being the incumbent party, as opposed to being a challenger party, in a constituency. His overall conclusion is that there is no obvious way of measuring the degree of anti-incumbency, or its obverse, pro-incumbency. There are at least four measures based on the likelihood of winning. Which measure is appropriate depends on what one is trying to establish.

Keywords: Bayes' Theorem; Electoral Risk; Party Incumbency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-12
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Published in Votes, Parties, and Seats Palgrave Macmillan, London (2015): pp. 77-96

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:76617

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