Federal Reserve Private Information and the Stock Market
Aeimit Lakdawala and
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
We study the response of stock prices to monetary policy, distinguishing the effects of exogenous policy actions from ``Delphic" actions that reveal the Federal Reserve's macroeconomic forecasts. To decompose composite monetary policy surprises into these separate components, we exploit differences in central bank and private sector forecasts to construct a measure of Federal Reserve private information. Contractionary monetary policy shocks of either type cause a fall in stock prices with exogenous shocks having a larger negative effect. However there is an important asymmetry; when FOMC meetings are unscheduled or when the fed funds rate reverses direction, stock prices actually rise in response to a contractionary Delphic shock.
Keywords: Monetary Policy Shocks; Stock Prices; Federal Reserve Private Information (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E44 E5 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77608/1/MPRA_paper_77608.pdf original version (application/pdf)
Journal Article: Federal reserve private information and the stock market (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:77608
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().