Federal Reserve Credibility and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Aeimit Lakdawala and Shu Wu

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this paper we show how the degree of central bank credibility influences the level, slope and curvature of the term structure of interest rates. In an estimated structural model, we find that historical yield curve data are best matched by the Federal Reserve conducting policy in a loose commitment framework, rather than the commonly used discretion and full commitment assumptions. The structural impulse responses indicate that the past history of realized shocks play a crucial role in determining the dynamic effects of monetary policy on the yield curve. Finally, the regime-switching framework allows us to estimate likely re-optimization episodes which are found to impact the middle of the yield curve more than the short and long end.

Keywords: Term Structure; Commitment; Regime-Switching Bayesian Estimation; Optimal Monetary Policy; DSGE models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-his, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Journal Article: Federal Reserve credibility and the term structure of interest rates (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:78253

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