Economic Forecasting Based on the Relationship between GDP and Real Money Supply

Sergey Blinov

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Forecasts showing how the economy will be developing are very important both for the government and for all the economic agents, including citizens. In Russia, the common practice is to forecast based on price assumptions for hydrocarbons, primarily oil. Such an approach causes serious errors. This paper proposes a different approach driven by the close linkage between the GDP and the real money supply. By way of an example, forecast scenarios for Russia’s GDP in 2017 are adduced. Options for using the proposed methodology in economic policy (including anti-crisis policy) are suggested

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Energy and the Macroeconomy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C54 E37 E52 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-04-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:78717

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