An alternative approach to firms’ evaluation: expert systems and fuzzy logic
Carlo Alberto Magni
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
Abstract:
Discounted Cash Flow techniques are the generally accepted methods for valuing firms. Such methods do not provide explicit acknowledgment of the value determinants and overlook their interrelations. This paper proposes a different method of firm valuation based on fuzzy logic and expert systems. It does represent a conceptual transposition of Discounted Cash Flow techniques but, unlike the latter, it takes explicit account of quantitative and qualitative variables and their mutual integration. Financial, strategic and business aspects are considered by focusing on twenty-nine value drivers that are combined together via “if-then” rules. The output of the system is a real number in the interval [0,1], which represents the value-creation power of the firm. To corroborate the model a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The system may be used for rating and ranking firms as well as for assessing the impact of managers’ decisions on value creation and as a tool of corporate governance.
Keywords: Firms’ evaluation; fuzzy logic; expert system; rating; acquisition; sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C02 C51 C67 C88 G12 G31 G34 M21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-04
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)
Published in International Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making 5.1(2006): pp. 195-225
Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7879/1/MPRA_paper_7879.pdf original version (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:7879
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().