EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Negative Political Advertising: It’s All in the Timing

Brent Davis

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Negative political advertising is a common feature of election campaigns in liberal democracies, whether in the milder form of ‘contrast ads’ or the more aggressive form of ‘attack ads’. Despite a substantial volume of scholarship, whether such advertisements generate persuasion effects (persuading voters of the deficiencies in the subject of the ads) or backlash effects (diminishing the standing of the candidate/party promulgating the ads) remains a still-unresolved question. This ‘persuasion or backlash’ question may well reflect the implicit assumption in many of the research designs, and their associated (and consequently mis-specified) models: that causality runs from negative political advertising to vote intention. This article tests that assumption, and finds it wanting. Testing for endogeneity indicates a bi-directional causality between negative political advertising and vote intention; each causes the other, but with differential temporal profiles. For electoral scholars (and campaign strategists) this means the decision(s) to engage in negative political advertising is not just if, by whom or how, but also when.

Keywords: election campaigns; political advertising; voter behavior; politico-econometric modelling; endogeneity; election forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C54 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-05-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-dcm, nep-mkt and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79449/1/MPRA_paper_79449.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:79449

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().

 
Page updated 2023-11-11
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79449