Time Varying VAR Analysis for Disaggregated Exchange Rate Pass-through in Tunisia

Ahlem Dahem, Slim Skander and Siala Guermazi Fatma

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Our paper follows the "Time Varying Parameter VAR with Stochastic Volatility" (TVP VAR) approach developed by Primiceri (2005): Bayesian estimation with time varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. Our paper contributes to the literature by examining if the impact of monetary and exchange rate shocks have varied over time in Tunisia through a disaggregated analysis of exchange rate pass-through by introducing time variability in two ways; firstly, by assuming That all the coefficients of the VAR model are variant in time, and secondly, in the temporal variance-covariance matrix, that is the error term’s volatility of the VAR model. The multivariate stochastic volatility aims at capturing the heteroskedasticity of shocks and non linearities in the simultaneous relationships between the variables of the model. In fact, it allows us to capture abrupt and progressive changes in state variables. Given the structural and institutional changes in the Tunisian economy over the last few decades, it is important to emphasize the possibility of such a temporal variation in the empirical methodology. To the best of our knowledge, this work is among the first to apply the TVP-VAR approach with stochastic volatility to the shocks of monetary and exchange rate policies in Tunisia. Overall, the findings confirm that the modeling approch; i.e the TVP-VAR, is the best tool to analyze the impact of these shocks in Tunisia. The results of the study can help the short- and long-term decision-makers in Tunisia to adopt appropriate strategies for conducting monetary policy as well as containing inflation.

Keywords: TVP; VAR; approach; –; Bayesian; estimation; –; Disaggregate; Analysis; –; Exchange; rate; Pass-through; –; Monetary; policy; –; Tunisia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 E31 E42 E52 E61 F31 F41 O55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017, Revised 2017
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:79759

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