Solution of the Ellsberg paradox by means of the principle of uncertain future

Alexander Harin

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains an (hidden) uncertainty. The first consequence of the principle: the real values of high probabilities are lower than the preliminarily determined ones; conversely, the real values of low probabilities can be higher than the preliminarily determined ones. The first consequence provides an uniform solution of the underweighting of high and the overweighting of low probabilities, of the Allais paradox, risk aversion, loss aversion, the equity premium puzzle, the “fourfold pattern” paradox, etc. The second consequence: the present probability system of a future event is incomplete. The second consequence provides a solution of the incompleteness of systems of preferences, of ambiguity aversion, of the Ellsberg paradox, etc.

Keywords: uncertainty; risk; utility; choice; decisions; probability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: A1 B4 C5 D01 D81 E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-04-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-upt
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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