An analytically solvable model for soccer: further implications of the classical Poisson model

John Fry, Tom Hastings and Jean-Philippe Serbera

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this paper we discuss an exactly soluble statistical model for soccer. By taking into account key features of soccer matches (goals are rare, goal-scoring patterns are not well understood) we arrive at a version of the classical Poisson model but with constraints on the expected total number of goals in a game. Closed form expressions are derived for expected scores and match outcomes. We are also able to reconstruct an empirically observed inverse strike-back effect pertaining to teams scoring consecutive goals. We produce analytical results for perfectly competitive soccer leagues where draws are tied to the average number of goals in a game. An empirical application to the 2016 UEFA European Championships is also discussed.

Keywords: Forecasting; Gaming; Sports; Stochastic Processes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-spo
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:82458

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