Identifying Price Bubble Periods in the Energy Sector

Shahil Sharma and Diego Escobari

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this paper we test for the existence of single and multiple episodes of explosive behavior in three energy sector indices (crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas) and five energy sector spot prices (West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, heating oil, natural gas, and jet fuel). The results from the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Generalized SADF tests provide strong statistical evidence of explosive behavior in all of our energy series. A simple theoretical framework of commodity pricing allows us to understand the assumptions to interpret explosive behavior as bubbles. By constructing implied convenience yields using futures prices we test the key assumption and we are able to identify the beginning and the end of bubble periods for the WTI, Brent, heating oil, and natural gas spot prices.

Keywords: Generalized SADF; Energy; Oil; Explosive behavior; Bubbles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 Q02 Q41 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83355/1/MPRA_paper_83355.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Identifying price bubble periods in the energy sector (2018)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:83355

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().