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延迟退休的制约因素、政策效果与动态研究方法评价

Restriction, Policy Effect and Dynamic Research Method to Delay Retirement

Tieding Zou

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: 本文以人口老龄化和就业环境的不确定性为背景,探讨延迟退休的预算平衡作用、就业挤出效应以及动态研究方法。研究发现,中国政府考虑延迟退休,既是为了应对养老金亏空,又是为了缓解经济非均衡发展过程中的局部用工荒。在养老金亏空问题上,延迟退休可能短期有效、长期无效,也可能短期和长期都无效。在就业影响上,一些文献认为延迟退休存在就业挤出效应,一些则认为不存在,还有部分学者甚至认为还有利于促进就业。而个体人力资本异质性以及行业职业发展差异则是影响延迟退休可行性、有效性和合理性的关键因素,个体在健康状况、教育经历、技能水平、工作经验上的分化,以及同行业就业环境的匹配性所造成的个体社会地位、工作成就感和薪酬水平的差异化演变,直接影响延迟退休的政策效果及其经济影响,应当成为延迟退休方案设计及其选择的重要关注点。所以,将个体就业和政府预算置于统一的动态一般均衡分析框架之下,构建包含个体和行业异质性的OLG模型,有利于拟合延迟退休的政策效果和经济影响。

Keywords: 延迟退休;养老金亏空;就业挤出效应;OLG模型 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H62 I38 J26 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-12-19, Revised 2018-01-30
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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