Comparison between Static and Dynamic Forecast in Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average for Seasonally Adjusted Headline Consumer Price Index

Emerson Jackson

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This empirical study has provided interpretive outcome from a univariate forecast using Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The HCPI_SA seasonally adjusted data for Sierra Leone shows a robust model outcome with three months ahead prediction based on the STATIC method result. Test results like Autocorrelation and also comparative values for MAPE and the Inverted Root values have indicated that the model is a good fit. Despite better choice of outcome from the STATIC result in comparison to DYNAMIC forecast, the conclusion a cautious means of advice when using results for policy outcomes and with comparative forecasts highly recommended a way forward in guiding policy makers’ decision.

Keywords: ARIMA; Forecast; Headline Consumer Price Index [HCPI]; Sierra Leone (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-01-11, Revised 2018-04-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Related works:
Journal Article: COMPARISON BETWEEN STATIC AND DYNAMIC FORECAST IN AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE FOR SEASONALLY ADJUSTED HEADLINE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:86180

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