Sector externo y política cambiaria en Colombia 1999 - 2002: del desequilibrio externo al equilibrio precario

External sector and exchange political in Colombia 1999 - 2002: of the external imbalance to the precarious balance (in Spanish)

Ramón Mesa Callejas () and Elizeth Ramos O.

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This article analyzes the conditions allowing the external equilibrium in Colombia during the period 1999 - 2002 associated with the performance of the external sector and the exchange rate policies. The main hypothesis in that the equilibrium achieved is precarious due to the poor level of economic growth, the substantial reduction of imports and the drop of saving rate. Following this, the analysis of the exchange policy allows arguing that the adjustment implemented in the last year of the exchange rate band regime, ended up lowering the external activities. Additionally, the adoption of a free market regime has achieve a greater level of autonomy of the monetary policy as well as a short term break between the exchange rate and international reserves. En este articulo se analizan las condiciones que permitieron alcanzar el equilibrio externo en Colombia en el periodo 1999 - 2002, asociadas con el desempeño del sector externo y con la evolución de la politica cambiaria. La hipotesis principal señala que el equilibrio logrado fue precario, debido al escaso nivel de crecimiento economico, la reduccion sustancial de las importaciones y las bajas tasas de ahorro. Seguidamente un analisis de la evolución de la politica cambiaria en el cuatrienio permite argumentar, en primera instancia, como la politica de ajuste implementada en el ultimo año del regimen de banda termino por acelerar aun mas el deterioro de la actividad. En segunda instancia, la adopcion del esquema de libre mercado ha permitido logar hasta el momento un mayor grado de autonomia de la politica monetaria y una disociacion de corto plazo entre el tipo de cambio y las reservas internacionales

Keywords: Equilibrio externo; Deficit en cuenta corriente; Politica de ajuste; Politica cambiaria; Regimen de tipo de cambio flexible (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-10-01
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Published in Perfil de Coyuntura Economica No. 2 (2003): pp. 64-83

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Journal Article: Sector externo y política cambiaria en Colombia 1999-2002: del desequilibrio externo al equilibrio precario (2003)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:866

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