 The ARDL Approach to Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Demand in Turkey: with Greece as the substitution destinationMPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Abstract: This paper estimates tourism demand model for Turkey from 13 countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States. The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of demand for Turkey’s tourism and to examine cointegration relationships in the considered model, over the period from 1996 to 2006 year on the monthly basis. This paper uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach advocated by Pesaran and Pesaran (1997), which is more appropriate for studies with small samples. From our results we found evidence at the high significance level of a long-run cointegration relationships among the variables. The study shows that the most significant impact on the tourism demand in the long-run as well as in the short-run has income of tourist arrivals. In addition, the applied CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests confirm the stability of the tourism demand model in most of considered countries. Keywords: demand; elasticity; cointegration; ARDL; vector error correction; stability test. (search for similar items in EconPapers) Published in Middle East Technical University Studies in Development 2.36(2009): pp. 363-382 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:86602 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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