Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited
Johannes Gross and
Luca Rebeggiani
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
Abstract:
The extent of market efficiency induced by rational behaviour of market participants is central for economic research. Many economists have already examined sports-betting markets as a laboratory to better understand trading behaviour and efficiency of stock prices while avoiding to jointly test the hypothesis of a correct capital market model. The following paper will investigate whether the European football betting market fulfils the efficiency paradigm introduced by Fama (1970) with a unique dataset allowing for an investigation of the German betting market in view of its regulatory changes recently. The analysis contributes to the literature by conducting a variety of empirical strategy including rational expectation frameworks and an ordered choice model to stress the ex post market performance from a weak and semi-strong form perspective. In view of existing market distortions as taxes, switching costs of changing betting providers and limitation in competition, the results of the analysis are indicative of a rational market equilibrium surprisingly close to the efficiency benchmark.
Keywords: Sports Betting; Gambling; Market Efficiency; Sports Economics; Market Regulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G14 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-spo and nep-upt
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)
Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/87230/1/MPRA_paper_87230.pdf original version (application/pdf)
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:87230
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().