Effect of Aging on Urban Land Prices in China

Tianyu Sun, Satish Chand and Keiran Sharpe

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of demographic changes on land prices in urban China using an Overlapping Generation (OLG) model. The model suggests that the rapid rise in land prices could be explained by the rise in per capita income and demographic changes. This finding is validated by fitting the historical data of China. We then simulate land price dynamics for China from 2000 to 2100. The simulation indicates that the rate of rising in land prices is softening. From 2035 to 2055, the effect of demographic changes on urban land prices in China will be close to zero. After 2055, the effect will turn to negative until the end of this century; however, a meltdown is unlikely.

Keywords: Aging Population; OLG Model; Urban Land Prices; Forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 E31 J11 R21 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-06-26
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-cna, nep-dem, nep-dge, nep-mac, nep-tra and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:89237

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