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Model selection for modeling the demand for narrow money in transitional economies

Marcin Błażejowski, Pawel Kufel (), Tadeusz Kufel (), Jacek Kwiatkowski and Magdalena Osinska ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The aim of this study was to verify the stability of monetary systems. Systems were measured by aggregate narrow money in selected emerging economies. The United Kingdom's economy was used as a benchmark. The Baumol-Tobin and Friedman monetary models were used as the theoretical basis for the for empirical error-correction models. A Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach was used to incorporate model uncertainty and select the best model. The results show that the monetary systems in 6 of the 11 economies were stable in the long run and that a set of factors changed in the short run. The robustness of the model selection based on the BACE procedure was strongly confirmed.

Keywords: model uncertainty; BACE; jointness; robust variables selection; gretl (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 E41 P24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-12-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-mac and nep-mon
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