The French Franc and European Monetary Crisis

Marcel Didier

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The currency crises of 1992 and 1993 have shown that extremely strong pressures can be exerted on official parities when investors realize that significant monetary realignments may be imminent. In this paper, I present an empirical analysis of the 1992-1993 crises in order to determine whether speculators are able to predict exactly when devaluations will occur, and whether information on current events political and economic influence their expectations and if so, in what way. In particular, I analyze the expectations of the date of the devaluation of the French franc against the Deutsche Mark before the 1992 and 1993 monetary crises. The empirical analysis shows that before the outbreak of these two crises, Investors realized that the devaluation was imminent and that they were very sensitive to the information disseminated daily on the markets.

Keywords: Currency; crises (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-07-02
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in European Political Economy Review Summer.3(2004): pp. 139-154

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/90504/1/MPRA_paper_90504.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:90504

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().