Cross-temporal aggregation: Improving the forecast accuracy of hierarchical electricity consumption

Evangelos Spiliotis, Fotios Petropoulos, Nikolaos Kourentzes and Vassilios Assimakopoulos

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Achieving high accuracy in load forecasting requires the selection of appropriate forecasting models, able to capture the special characteristics of energy consumption time series. When hierarchies of load from different sources are considered together, the complexity increases further; for example, when forecasting both at system and region level. Not only the model selection problem is expanded to multiple time series, but we also require aggregation consistency of the forecasts across levels. Although hierarchical forecast can address the aggregation consistency concerns, it does not resolve the model selection uncertainty. To address this we rely on Multiple Temporal Aggregation, which has been shown to mitigate the model selection problem for low frequency time series. We propose a modification for high frequency time series and combine conventional cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting with multiple temporal aggregation. The effect of incorporating temporal aggregation in hierarchical forecasting is empirically assessed using a real data set from five bank branches, demonstrating superior accuracy, aggregation consistency and reliable automatic forecasting.

Keywords: Temporal aggregation; Hierarchical forecasting; Electricity load; Exponential smoothing; MAPA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C4 C53 D8 D81 L94 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ene, nep-ets and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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