Predicting inflation in Senegal: An ARMA approach

Thabani Nyoni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Senegal from 1968 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that the inflation rate series is I(0). The study presents the ARMA (1, 0, 0) model, which is equivalent to an AR (1) model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARMA (1, 0, 0) model is stable and acceptable for forecasting inflation rates in Senegal. The results of the study apparently show that inflation will be approximately 4.7% by 2020. Policy makers and the business community in Senegal are expected to take advantage of the anticipated stable inflation rates over the next decade.

Keywords: Forecasting; Inflation; Senegal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 E37 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-02-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:92431

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