What will be China's population in 2050? Evidence from the Box-Jenkins approach

Thabani Nyoni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Employing annual time series data on total population in China from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that China annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable although its residuals are non-stationary. The results of the study reveal that total population in China will continue to rise in the next three decades and in 2050 China’s total population will be approximately 1.6 billion people. Three policy recommendations have been suggested for consideration by the Chinese government.

Keywords: China; forecasting; population (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 Q56 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-02-25
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:92439

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