Addressing the population question in Mexico: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

Thabani Nyoni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Employing annual time series data on total population in Mexico from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Mexico annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is stable and that its residuals are stationary. The results of the study show that total population in Mexico will continue to rise in the next three decades and in 2050 Mexico’s total population will be approximately 180 million people. Three policy prescriptions have been proposed for consideration by the government of Mexico.

Keywords: Forecasting; Mexico; population (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 Q56 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-02-19
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:92440

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