Is South Africa the South Africa we all desire? Insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

Thabani Nyoni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Using annual time series data on GDP per capita in South Africa from 1960 to 2017, the study investigates GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that South African GDP per capita data is I (1). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented parsimonious model is indeed stable and quite reliable. The results of the study indicate that living standards in South Africa may improve but very slowly over the next decade, unless prudent macroeconomic management practices are exercised. The paper offers 5 main policy prescriptions in an effort to help policy makers in South Africa on how to promote and maintain the much awaited growth and development.

Keywords: Forecasting; GDP per capita; South Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E37 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-02-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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