Modeling and forecasting CPI in Iran: A univariate analysis

Thabani Nyoni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper uses annual time series data on CPI in Iran from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast CPI using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the I series is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model for predicting CPI in Iran. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable for predicting CPI in Iran. The results of the study apparently show that CPI in Iran is likely to continue on an upwards trajectory in the next ten years. The study basically encourages Iranian policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to control inflation in Iran.

Keywords: Forecasting; Iran; inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 E37 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-02-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:92454

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