Modeling and forecasting inflation in Tanzania using ARIMA models

Thabani Nyoni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Tanzania from 1966 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the T series is I (1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model for predicting inflation in Tanzania. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in Tanzania. The results of the study apparently show that inflation in Tanzania is likely to continue on an upwards trajectory in the next decade. The study basically encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to control inflation in Tanzania.

Keywords: Forecasting; inflation; Tanzania (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 E37 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-02-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:92458

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