Will the United States of America (USA) be a beneficiary of the Alburg (1998) and Becker et al (1999) prophecies? Recent insights from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

Thabani Nyoni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Employing annual time series data on total population in the USA from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach. Diagnostic tests show that USA annual total population data is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 3) model. The diagnostic tests indicate that the presented model is very stable and quite suitable. The results of the study reveal that total population in USA will continue to sharply rise in the next three decades. Considering a highly educated labor force, coupled with latest technological advancements, USA is likely to be one of the first beneficiaries of the Ahlburg (1998) and Becker et al (1999) prophecies. In order to stay in the realm of the aforementioned prophecies, USA should take note of the 3-fold policy recommendations put forward.

Keywords: Forecasting; population; USA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 Q56 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-02-19
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/92459/1/MPRA_paper_92459.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:92459

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().