Terrorist attacks and public approval and confidence in the Russian president: Evidence from time series analysis

Igor Fedotenkov

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this paper we apply time series analysis to examine weekly data of Vladimir Putin’s approval and confidence ratings and their dependence on terrorist attacks. We find that minor terrorist attacks with few or no mortal casualties in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan increase Putin’s ratings, while major terrorist attacks, with more than four mortal casualties, have a negative impact. There is also evidence that terrorist attacks in other Russian regions reduce Putin’s public approval; however, this evidence is weaker and depends on the model specification. The effects of terrorist attacks on the confidence rating are indistinguishable from the statistical noise. Furthermore, we control for main annual media events with President Putin’s participation: the television Q&A program `Direct Line with V. Putin', address to the Federal Assembly and a large annual conference. All three media events increase the president’s approval, with `Direct Line' having the least effect. Only the large annual conference has a significant positive impact on respondents’ confidence in Putin.

Keywords: Terrorist attack; Russia; Putin; approval ratings; confidence ratings (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 H56 N4 N44 P20 P26 Y8 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-06-21
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:94638

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