Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of Output Gap and Real Exchange Rate Cycles for Turkey

Mehmet Ekinci

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Decomposing time series data into trend and cyclical components is among the top priorities for policy maker institutions. Comparing with the unrestricted Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and Hodrick-Prescott filter, we implement a restricted Beveridge-Nelson filter developed by Kamber et. al. (2018) which limits the volatility of trend component. Utilizing the quarterly real GDP series and monthly real exchange rate data for Turkey, we find that Beveridge-Nelson filter provides more persistent and larger cyclical values than Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. Taking the output gap estimates of Central Bank of Turkey as a benchmark, our results indicate that Beveridge-Nelson filter method yields more sensible results. We also develop a measure to make an assessment on the end-point bias. Our results show that restricted Beveridge-Nelson filter performs better than Hodrick-Prescott filter regarding the magnitude of end point bias.

Keywords: Beveridge-Nelson decomposition; Beveridge-Nelson filter; Hodrick-Prescott filter; output gap; real exchange rate cycles; signal-to-noise ratio. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E17 E32 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-06-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/94698/1/MPRA_paper_94698.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:94698

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().