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Do Import Tariffs Generate Stagflationary Tendencies?

Mikidadu Mohammed

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The recent U.S. trade policy shift has reignited interest about the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs. This paper examines the impacts of import tariff shocks on U.S. macroeconomic performance using quarterly data from 1989-2017. Relying upon the estimation of structural VAR model with sign restrictions, the results suggest that tariff shocks on net-imported vital intermediate input, such as steel, trigger stagflationary tendencies as characterized by short-run increase in inflation and unemployment and decline in real output.

Keywords: import tariff shocks; steel; stagflation; structural VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 F10 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-mac
Date: 2018-08-15, Revised 2019-04-09
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https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95128/1/MPRA_paper_95128.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Do import tariffs generate stagflationary tendencies? (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Do Import Tariffs Generate Stagflationary Tendencies? (2018) Downloads
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