Fluctuations de prix des matières premières et économie congolaise: manne d’espoir ou de malédiction ?

Fluctuations in commodity price and the congolese economy: hope or curse manna?

Floribert Ntungila and Christian Pinshi

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: With the recent fall in commodity prices, the super-dependent economies of commodities, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have been shaken, especially as these countries consider commodity as manna falling from the sky. Movements in commodity prices have led to significant fluctuations. This article analyzes the short and long-term sensitivity of the Congolese economy to fluctuations in commodity prices and verifies the resource curse hypothesis in the DRC. Using the fully modified least squares method (FM-OLS), we estimated the error correction model. Our conclusions suggest that the Congolese economy suffers adverse effects on short and long-term commodity price shocks. The readjustment of the economy is slow and long. The national economy does not enjoy the benefits of commodity prices, but is only suffering the devastating effects. Hence the commodity do not seem like a manna of hope and the economy remains in an eternal whirlwind of curse. As the DRC does not have a solid fiscal space, the challenge is to find pragmatic, cost-effective solutions. Economic procyclicality weighs on political strategies, and ambitious processes of structural reforms are beneficial.

Keywords: commodity prices; economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E01 F44 Q02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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