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Economic integration and macroeconomic shocks in Eurasia

Behrooz Gharleghi ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The main objective of this research is to make an assessment of the symmetry/asymmetry of underlying macroeconomic shocks in the Eurasia region. A model is developed to distinguish structural global supply shocks, regional supply shocks, and domestic supply shocks using a reduced-form structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). Empirical results reveal that the correlation between domestic and regional shocks, as well as between domestic and global shocks, are clearly divided into two groups of countries: (i) domestic (country-specific) supply shocks are more correlated with global shocks in the European part of the region (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, and Ukraine; with the exception of Mongolia here); and (ii) domestic shocks are mostly correlated with regional shocks in the Central Asian part of the region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan; with the exception of Moldova here). This has implications for the Chinese economy in the region.

Keywords: Eurasia; China; Macroeconomic shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E50 E60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-cwa, nep-mac and nep-tra
Date: 2019-08-01
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