Can spillover effects provide forecasting gains? The case of oil price volatility

Ioannis Chatziantoniou, Stavros Degiannakis, Panagiotis Delis and George Filis

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We consider spillovers between oil price volatility and key uncertainty indicators. Adding to existing studies, we extend the applicability of the spillover index beyond economic inference, by generating forecasts of oil price volatility. Findings suggest that spillover effects do not contain significant predictive information. This in turn, raises critical questions regarding the usefulness of the spillover index for such task. However, it is critical to collect further evidence for the support of our findings.

Keywords: Uncertainty; oil price volatility; forecasting; spillover effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C32 C53 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:96266

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