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Macroeconomic Impacts of Export Barriers in a Dynamic CGE Model

Iman Haqiqi and Marziyeh Bahalou

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: A large economic literature discusses the implications of export sanctions for a variety of states around the world. This paper investigates the macrolevel consequences of imposing oil export barriers on an oil exporting country. We employ a large real financial computable general equilibrium for Iran. The model is calibrated based on 1999 Social Accounting Matrix for the economy of Iran including 112 commodities and 47 activities. We find that the impact of a 50% negative shock in oil export would amount to a 4.6% reduction in GDP, a 6.8% fall in private consumption, a 20.2% cut in government spending, a 20.4% decrease in import, a 9.9% contraction in capital formation, and a+ 29.2% increase in non-oil export. We also find that there is a conflict between government benefits and national benefit. Our sensitivity analysis proves the robustness of the results.

Keywords: export barriers; government spending; capital formation; computable general equilibrium; social accounting matrix (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 D58 F41 F51 F62 Q33 Q37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-06
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Published in Journal of Money and Economy 3.8(2013): pp. 117-150

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