The population question in Zimbabwe: reliable projections from the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach

Thabani Nyoni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Employing annual time series data on total population in Zimbabwe from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that Zimbabwe annual total population is neither I (1) nor I (2) but for the sake of simplicity,we assume it is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 2, 2) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented model is stable andacceptable. The results of the study indicate that total population in Zimbabwe will continue to increase in the next three decades. In order to enjoy the benefits of the Ahlburg (1998) and Becker et al (1999) prophecy, 2 policy prescriptions have been put forward.

Keywords: ARIMA; forecasting; population growth; population policy; total population; Zimbabwe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-09-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/96791/1/MPRA_paper_96791.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:96791

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().