Shocks de precios internacionales bajo incertidumbre estocástica

International Prices Shocks under Stochastic Uncertainty

Samuel Alarcon Gambarte

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Latin America has experienced a context of high volatility in its terms of trade during recent years. To analyze this phenomenon, a new way of modeling external prices that seeks to capture the uncertainty of the international market is provided. A stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed and estimated with data from Bolivia. Finally, a simulation is carried out introducing an export price shock and analyzing three different scenarios: Conventional, under persistence shock and variance shock. It is analyzed the macroeconomic mechanisms of transmission in the face of external shocks and how economic agents react to changes in uncertainty.

Keywords: Macroeconomía de la Economía Abierta; Fluctuaciones y Ciclo Económico. Macroeconomics of the Open Economy; Fluctuations and Economic Cycle. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F4 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-mac and nep-ore
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:97116

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