Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy
Ivan Kitov (),
Oleg Kitov () and
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
We present a comprehensive macroeconomic model for the U.S. There exist strict long-term relations between real GDP, price inflation, labor force participation, productivity, and unemployment. The evolution of real GDP depends only on exogenous demographic forces. Other macro-variables follow up the real GDP. The links between the variables have been valid during the last several decades. All relations were (successfully) tested for cointegration. Statistical estimates are also presented. The relationships allow a reliable prediction of the macroeconomic state at very large (more than 9 years) time horizons.
Keywords: US economy; macroeconomic model; real GDP; inflation; unemployment; labor force; productivity; demography (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 D3 J1 J2 E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9808/1/MPRA_paper_9808.pdf original version (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:9808
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().