Asymmetry and Symmetry of real exchange rate effect on the bilateral trade balance between Vietnam and the United States: aggregated and disaggregated levels of investigation
Sy-Hoa Ho (),
Trung-Thanh Nguyen and
Nguyen To-The ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Trung Thanh Nguyen
MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany
Bilateral trade balance always deserves particular interest of policy makers and economists. In this paper, we examined the asymmetric and symmetric effect of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between Vietnam and the US at both aggregated and disaggregated commodity levels. We employed both Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Non-linear ARDL (NARDL) models to a dataset spanning over 18 years. We found that (i) both symmetry and asymmetry of real exchange rates are not significant to explain the total trade balance between Vietnam and the United States; (ii) unlike the insignificant effect on the aggregated level, the empirical evidence at the disaggregated level is mixed and dependent on product category. Our findings reveal that (iii) the claim of unfair trade by using exchange rate from the US Treasury is unclear from our estimations; and (iv) a depreciation of USD (i.e. appreciation of VND) leads the long-run US’s trade balance will improve for 10 commodities, and whereas an appreciation of USD (depreciation of VND), long-run trade balance will improve for 11 commodities. The results suggest that only a number of specific industries will benefit from USD appreciation or depreciation.
Keywords: asymmetry exchange rate; trade balance; ARDL; NARDL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 F14 F40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98416/1/MPRA_paper_98416.pdf original version (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:98416
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().